I believe it’s possible that enough Republican senators will either vote to convict Donald Trump in his impeachment trial or absent themselves from the trial in order to reduce the number of senators needed to convict. (The Constitution requires only that two-thirds of senators present for the proceedings vote to convict, not two-thirds of all senators.)
Republican senators know there’s a price to pay with their base for breaking with Trump, so many of them will avoid making any public pronouncements against him. But they are also aware that their party will be in dire peril if Trump remains eligible to become president again in 2024. His millions of supporters will insist that the G.O.P. endorse his candidacy and will refuse to support any Republican officeholder who does not. Republicans at all levels of government will be obliged to either align themselves with an antidemocratic insurrectionist or sacrifice the votes of a large portion of the Republican electorate.
For that reason, there’s a chance that just enough of them will either vote to convict or stay home. Those in the latter category may say they are boycotting the proceedings as a way of protesting the trial, but the effect would be that Trump is convicted and then barred from holding future office.
While Trump’s disbarment would be a boon for the G.O.P., it would also, coincidently, be a godsend for the entire country (a rare convergence, in my view). The only question is whether enough Republican senators will be willing to take the political risk of making it happen.