Getting Less Careful Over Time

I read somewhere that human beings have a psychological tendency to increasingly discount risk over time. If you do something dangerous and nothing bad happens, then you’re a little less concerned, and perhaps a little less careful, the next time. Encounter that risk often enough without suffering consequences and eventually you’re, figuratively speaking, running with scissors.

That would seem to be something to be aware of as we deal with the coronavirus pandemic. This week we might have another couple over for a visit on the lawn with everyone sitting 10 feet apart. Next week it might be six people and we’re serving cocktails. Three months from now will we be hosting a dinner party in the dining room (especially given that it’ll be 40 degrees outside by then)?

Especially in parts of the country where the number of new Covid-19 cases has gone way down, I think we tend to do a mental calculation that goes something like this: Probably no one here is sick, so we don’t have to be super careful. But clearly there’s no logic in that. Whether someone is sick is a binary proposition — they’re either contagious or they’re not. If they’re not, no precautions are necessary. The only reason any precautions make sense is if we acknowledge the possibility that someone is contagious. And if someone is contagious, then it makes no sense to be only somewhat careful. It’s not the case that half-assed precautions are effective against people who probably aren’t sick.

It occurred to me the other day that one way to maintain an appropriate level of vigilance is to play a mental game whenever we interact with other people face-to-face: pretend that either we or they have Covid-19, but we don’t know which of us it is.

How close would I get if I knew that either I or that other person was an asymptomatic carrier of the coronavirus? How much time would I spend indoors with them, even assuming we’re wearing masks? Would I hand them a cocktail? What precautions would I take if I had to use their bathroom?

We now know that there is not a big risk of catching the virus from touching a surface that someone else touched, especially if we wash our hands before touching our face, but there appears to be a significant risk of getting sick if we’re in the same room for an extended period of time with someone who has the virus, especially if that room isn’t well-ventilated. Masks and social distancing help but they’re not a silver bullet. That’s why I won’t be eating indoors at a restaurant or going to the movies before the pandemic is over.

But how will we navigate the risks when the weather gets cold and we’re all forced to stay indoors? I suspect that many of us are going to spend more time inside with people who are not members of our own household, partly because of our innate tendency to discount risk over time, partly because the incidence of the virus is not as great as it was before, and partly because we’ve reached the limit of how much isolation we can tolerate.

We’ll all need to make our own decisions about that. Personally, I’m going to try to remain vigilant, socialize on Zoom, and then make up for lost time by reconnecting with friends and neighbors when the pandemic is over.